2023 Agent Predictions
Here are the key trends to watch for in 2023, according to an online survey of more than 440 Compass agents nationwide.
National Market Dynamics: Sales, Prices, Rates, Rents & Inventory
The rapid market slowdown of the past six months is predicted to largely level off in 2023
- 62% said they predict there to be somewhat or much fewer home sales in 2023 compared to 2022. But 68.3% said they predict annual U.S. home price growth to decline only modestly or stay about the same as in 2022.
- 71.5% said they predict inventory to stay at current levels or increase somewhat. 75.8% said they expect the same of national rent levels.
- 61.6% said they predict average rates to end 2023 between 5% and 6%, down from 2022 highs exceeding 7%.
Market Demographics: Buyers vs Sellers & First-Timers vs Repeat Buyers
The market’s balance of power is predicted to shift towards buyers for the first time in years, but first-time buyers are likely to continue to struggle
- 86.6% said they predict a balanced national housing market or one tilted in buyers’ favor in 2023.
- 74.6% said they predict the share of first-time buyers – which fell to a record low in 2022 – to stay at low levels or decline further.
- 80.8% said they predict the share of buyers aged 55-74 – which hit a record high in 2022 – to stay the same or rise next year.
Where & How We Live: Urban vs Suburban Living
Urban living, condos and shared amenities will all be more popular in 2023
- A majority of agents agree – As affordability challenges continue, the pandemic fades, cities regain their luster and more companies begin to require employees to return to the office more regularly, condos will experience a resurgence in popularity in 2023.
- The number of respondents that said urban living would grow in popularity was 44.1% higher than the number that said it would fade.
- The number of respondents saying shared community amenities – community centers, pools, tennis/pickleball courts, etc. – would grow in popularity was more than triple the number that said those amenities would fade in popularity.
- 49.1% more respondents said large yards would fade in popularity than said they would be more popular.